Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Bubbles ? Are There Any ?

Headline during testimony of Ben Bernanke before Congress today:
"Does not see any bubbles in the economy at the moment".
The highly educated, super smart cream of the crop could not see the stock market bubble in 2000. They could not see the housing bubble in 2006. Now, 6 years later, everything is just fine again, right ?

What makes a bubble ? What are the telltale signs that give them away ?
When people pour money into investments that guarantee to lose them money. Especially, if they do so with borrowed funds.
The investment that fits that criteria today is bonds, government bonds. When someone buys a 10 year Treasury Note, they are guaranteed a 1.9% return. Inflation though, is running at least at 3% according to the government. According to this source though, it's running at least at double that rate:
http://www.shadowstats.com/
Whoever you want to believe, some statistician or your own wallet, if you entrust your hard earned monies to the government for 10 years, you will be paid back less than you have now.
Ok, that's sign number one for a bubble. What about leverage ? Yes, that applies as well. Indeed, if all the debt being sold was only sold for cash, it would mop up the money supply fairly fast, but government debt is SAFE, so you can borrow about 95% of your purchase.
What can possibly go wrong?

What makes this bubble possible? The promise of the Fed to keep rates at zero percent through 2014. Can they do that ? What if this bubble bursts and long term rates start to go up rapidly ?
No problem: Just print more money to purchase the bonds with, thereby supporting prices and ending the fall ?
Then people might start selling the Dollar, for fear that all that new money will push its value down ?
Then what ?

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