Thursday, August 25, 2011

Government Lies, Cheats, Defrauds :How ?

Let's take this big whopper from Europe:
In 2001 the Euro was introduced in the majority of countries making up the European Community. The promise was made that the European Central Bank would follow a monetary policy modeled after that of the Deutsche Bundesbank.
Further, an agreement was made that no Eurozone country would be allowed to bail out another. The ECB would not be allowed to buy the obligations of any member country.
By agreement, member countries would not be allowed to incur budget deficits of more than 3% of their respective GDP in any year, and the total debt was not to exceed 65% of GDP.
Nice plan: it actually made me bullish on the Euro for a long time.
Unfortunately, whenever a little problem pops up, rules are thrown out in a hurry.

In 2009, Greece discovered a "little" problem: It's reported financial data could not be relied upon as debts were much higher than previously disclosed.

Imagine that Greece was a company. What would have happened ? It likely would be forced into bankruptcy and the management would certainly be prosecuted for misleading the public, fraud etc..
What happened instead ? No-one has been put on trial !
Instead of letting those who foolishly lent money to Greece suffer the consequences, the IMF and the governments of the world that support it, have committed YOUR money, the money of the tax payers of the world, to bail out Greece.

But wait, it's not Greece or the Greek people who are helped here: It's the worlds large banks instead. Because they are "system-relevant" and if they would have to take the losses, they might fail ?

In the meantime, few days go by that there's not a gruesome story told in a major German magazine or newspaper on how "speculators" are guilty of causing all these problems.
How does it work in today's democracies, that governments can dish up a big pile of horse manure and the mainstream media and (therefore?) the public just eagerly gobble it up ?

Fortysix Percent Interest Per Year !

That's the current yield on Greek government 2 year obligations. If you buy these AND get paid, you double your money in 2 years !
Will you get paid ? Want to make that bet ? After all, the other European governments have publicly declared that they will not allow Greece to go bankrupt.
The European Central Bank holds about 60 billion Euros of Greek debt (with capital of only 10 billion).
What could possibly go wrong ?

In the meantime, Portugal 2 year debt yields more than 12% and the ECB is gobbling up more paper from Italy and Spain while their prices continue to fall.


Saturday, August 13, 2011

Democracy

Just hours ago, the results of the Aimes, Iowa straw poll were released. The first place finisher received 4823, Ron Paul received 4671 votes. Third place got only 2293 and since the total vote count was 16,892, the tally drops off rather markedly after.
What did the mainstream media make of it ? Exactly the opposite of what I just practiced here: Ron Paul was not mentioned by name, but everyone else was.
In addition, the first place finisher was born in Iowa and therefore had some hometown advantage and he was heavily favored by same mainstream media going into the poll. The Wall Street Journal for instance, wrote a lengthy "puff" piece about him just days ago.

Efficient Market ?

One company, two classes of stock. Both classes are exactly equal in rights except for one: The second, of class B shares, have 8 votes per share versus only 1 vote per A share.
Today, the B shares trade at 12, and the A shares at 16. Does it make any sense ?
The company in question is SunPower (SPWRA and SPWRB). Interesting to note that most brokerage analysts only talk about the A shares when they give estimates and recommendations.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

What's Wrong With Banking ? (Part One Of Many)

Funny story: My son wants to buy a first home and he is pre-approved for a 4.5% conventional mortgage loan, yet will finance his purchase with an 8% private loan because it's, get this, CHEAPER !
(with a lot less hassle to boot !)
A bank giving back it's banking charter because it lent to small business and got harassed for it by the regulators:
See article here :
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904480904576498442951766826.html

Gold At 1800....

The frequency with which I'm now posting about 100 Dollar increments in the new high price in gold should be a testament in itself that we may approach  a short term top.
Commodity prices, as measured by the CRB Index, made their highs in mid April of this year and are now about  12% lower. Platinum is trading now at a lower price than gold and silver could not get much above $40. It is trading at $39 right now after hitting $50 in April.
Ever keeping in mind that the Dollar is destined to be worthless, it may be time to trade some gold for other assets. Perhaps even real estate: Banks are seemingly getting serious about cleaning their books of unwanted REO (at least in this Seattle area)

Monday, August 8, 2011

Gold At 1700....

while other commodity prices are falling on account of a weakening economy, gold continues its relentless rise. Gold stocks, on the other hand, still fail to join in and are acting supremely disappointing.

Governments Of The World

pledge to stabilize the financial markets ! That's the headline I just read. Given their recent successes at "helping out" the markets, I'm feeling uneasy to scared right now.