Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Try to find the Deflation in these pictures, Ben !

The official wordsmiths term for what we are experiencing is a financial crisis. The better term though, is bankruptcy. An outright default was averted by the Fed printing money and providing it to the bankrupt financial institutions. Without that action, the dominoes surely would have kept falling.
In a normal bankruptcy proceeding creditors lose. In this case, the losses are born by all holders of the US currency. The printing of a few trillion Dollars, tends to make it worth less. The zero percent interest offered by the Fed to banks means that savers get no interest income on their cash holdings. In this fashion, money is transferred from pension funds, retirees, savers of all kinds, to banks.
Ben states that to combat deflation he needs to print a few trillions of Dollars. The following pictures make one wonder what he's looking at !


This is the Dollar Index. This is the only chart that shows a declining price. It would be even lower, if not for the Euro, which makes up about half of the index and has been weak lately because of its own debt troubles. I currently own the Euro, because I believe that even in the worst case, its troubles are a lot less than that of the Dollar.

Coffee: no comment, as I will not comment on the next 4 charts either. Let me just say that no matter what commodity you look at, they all look similar. In fact, this is a random collection !

Corn

Copper

Cotton

Soybeans

Though I usually only publish original work (with the exception of these charts that are courtesy of Futuresource.com, I just have to share this youtube clip with you. It's educational and hilarious.









Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Economy of Scale

Have you ever noticed how tax rates are lower in rural areas and higher as you get closer to population centers ?
On the other hand, government services are provided in a lot more pleasant manner and more efficiently in the less populated regions, at least in my observation.
I was again reminded of this as I tried to get some property information and building permit on a property in Mason county. The small county government consists of simple buildings, the people are friendly and helpful and there is no standing in line or taking of numbers.
If that is your experience with government, you would not object to having more of it. To turn you off that idea, all you have to do is observe the same functions being performed in Pierce or King county.
Strange, isn't it ? When an organization becomes bigger, shouldn't it enjoy economics of scale and be able to offer cheaper services at higher quality ?

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Trial by Jury

One of the greatest protections against tyranny in the American system of justice is the right to a trial by jury. If you should ever be put on trial, you have the right to be tried by 12 of your peers who have to vote unanimously to convict you.
But today, when you are called to be a juror, you will be told that you'll have to follow the law as the judge tells you. You will be told that you'll have to find the defendant guilty if he has broken a law, even if you disagree with the law or it's application in the particular case.
Yet, this is a trial by jury : not a trial by the judge, nor by legislators. If you vote to convict someone, it is on your conscience alone. You are the one who sends someone to prison or even his death. You are the judge and no-one else.
It takes a lot of courage to be able to stand up to the judge and the pressure of the other jurors. That is why anyone who shows a hint of this quality is usually excused from jury duty. Indeed, if you want to get out from it, all you need to state, is that you have the right to judge not only the facts of the case, but also the law.

Monday, December 20, 2010

Commodity prices

All major commodities traded on US exchanges remain in strong uptrends and whenever anyone looks toppy and succumbs to selling pressure, it's only for a short period. Hard to tell if it's overdone, but I'm not selling.
As long as Ben is busy printing and giving money away for nothing, why would anyone hold on to a falling Dollar?

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Truth ?

Often it's not difficult to discern the truth, it's just difficult to accept it.

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Bond market is cratering....

On November 11th I made the lucky guess that rates will rise even though Ben committed 600 billion Dollars to make them fall.
Also, on September 28th, I appealed to your sense of civic duty to accommodate Ben by selling your Treasuries to him.
Turns out, this wasn't such a bad move after all:
The 10 year note traded at 125.84 on September 28, at 125.6 on November 11 and now can be had for 121.6.
Yields rose from 2.45% to now 3.14%.
These moves would not warrant the use of the term "cratering", but perhaps these do : The 30 year bond fell from a high of almost 136 to now 122 and the yield on the 5 year note rose from just above 1% to now 1.7% in the same time frame.
Again, just a lucky guess, but I'm betting this trend will continue.