Friday, October 1, 2010

US is not Japan

Many investors expect to see rates on US government debt fall to levels like they are common in Japan for the last 15 years: 1 to 1.5 % on 10 year obligations.
That is highly unlikely IMHO and indeed I see a much greater danger in inflation hitting double digits.
The key difference is that Japan was a net creditor to the world when its real estate bubble burst in 1989. I guess that because debtors in Japan were now pressured to repay debts in Japan itself and also were unable to incur new debt because of falling asset prices, they in turn called in loans and sold assets in foreign countries. The receipts of those transactions were converted to Yen, thereby pushing it from around $0.60 per hundred Yen in 1989 to about $1.20 per hundred Yen 6 years later. Japan, in other words, experienced vicious asset price deflation and at the same time had to deal with a doubling of the value of its currency, making its exports much less competitive.
The position of the USA is exactly opposite: It is a net debtor and the Dollar has been making new lows since the bubble burst here in 2008. Since the US trade balance is still negative and amounts to about 3-4% of GDP per year, it requires foreign entities to accept that quantity of new Dollar assets every year. It would seem a daunting proposition, considering that investment returns here do not cover the present inflation rate.
It appears ludicrous to me, to fear deflation as commodity price indexes are reaching new historic highs almost every day.

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